Bitcoins

[Butterich]

Mir wurde kuerzlich mal was von einer der grossen Investmentbanken zugesendet:

"Simply judging by other stores of wealth such as gold, cryptocurrencies
have the potential to grow further from here. The market cap of
cryptocurrencies has just surpassed $300bn, but this is only a fifth of
the value of gold as a store of wealth, i.e. the amount of wealth stored in
gold ETFs, bars and coins by the private sector."

"The net amount that has been injected into cryptocurrencies so far has
been relatively small and, as a result, cryptocurrencies have not yet
posed a threat to other asset classes from a flow perspective."

"On our calculations, the cumulative net amount invested into Bitcoin
and Ethereum, the two largest cryptocurrencies by market
capitalization, since 2009 has totaled around $6bn, a fraction of their
current market cap of just over $200bn."

"The growing popularity and acceptance allows bitcoin
and other crypto currencies to trade well above their
intrinsic value as derived by the cost of mining. For
example, some estimates put the cost of mining a bitcoin
block at around $10,000 depending on assumptions
about electricity consumption costs. Divided by the
block reward of 12.5 bitcoins, this implies an intrinsic
value of $800 per bitcoin vs. a market value of almost
$10000."

"What about the impact of futures contracts on price
volatility? The evidence from the academic literature on
what happens when new futures contracts are listed is
somewhat mixed, and relates predominantly to listing of
new equity futures contracts. Generally, the listing of
new index futures contracts have been found to improve
the speed and quality of information flowing to spot
markets. But the evidence on the impact on volatility is
more mixed, with the introduction of futures contracts in
some cases being found to increase volatility in spot
markets, while in others either no significant or a
dampening effect were observed."


"In all, the prospective introduction of bitcoin futures has
the potential to elevate cryptocurrencies to an emerging
asset class. The value of this new asset class is a function
of the breadth of its acceptance as a store of wealth and
as a means of payment and simply judging by other
stores of wealth such as gold, cryptocurrencies have the
potential to grow further from here."

"That said, we note that bitcoin and other
cryptocurrencies do face some potential limitations in
performing the role of traditional currencies that could
impact their long-term appeal, highlighted previously by
our colleague John Normand (The audacity of bitcoin,
Feb 11, 2014)."

Quelle: J.P. Morgan - Global Markets