Thanks for your predictions, Ed

Let me append some random thoughts from German vintage collectors point of view:

1)
As you mentioned, provenance and condition are essential for collectors.

2)
Complete sets will increase the price extremely. Here we will experience a big crime wave with faked add-ons and accessories during next years, particularly with boxes and papers.

3)
The good Euro-Dollar ratio gives European collectors in 2008 a better availability of vintage watches, but sadly no better price range.

4)
In the former Rolex collectors entry level price range from 2.000–3.500 Euro we will find no more reasonable and complete vintage Rolex sport watches. The vintage models like DJ will take over this price level. Here we will find a considerable price increase till 2009.



5)
SS/GG prices are resting. We see only a smaller demand. Many ss/gg watches are in poor condition.

6)
Gold watches from 50th (Daydate), 60th (Daydate, GMT) and 70th (Daydate, DJ, GMT, Submariner) are still affordable. Often the gold versions without bracelet are cheaper than comparable steel versions. Biggest and costly problem is the condition of the gold bracelet.



7)
Vintage Explorer 1016 is keeping it’s price range since years. Here we may find a potential sleeper watch for the future.

8)
From 2008 on we have to name first sapphire glass watches as “vintage”, for instance 16550 or my loved “Fat Lady” 16760.




9)
Serious collectors are avoiding bigger investments in high price steel watches. They only buy well-aimed watches for their collections. This high-price market is extremly volatile and taken over by investors.

10)
Many new collectors are “buying their youth”. We see a high demand on “birthday” watches. Based on that, we will experience a higher demand of normal quality “every-day” vintage watches out of 1970-1985.

11)
To buy high and sell higher. Thats the bitter truth for the vintage market of the well-known "rare" steel watches (1655, 1665, 1019, ...). Here we will find only current daily prices.

12)
In 2008 we will see first quotes > 10k for complete sets of popular 60th and 70th watches like GMTs.







Happy New Year and buy watch you love.

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