Boris,

that is an interesting theory about how fakers could or may bring down prices of vintage watches. So in that case, for vintages watches one wants to keep it would be advisable to get Rolex authentication asap and keep it.

One thing that is for sure, even though it is driven by speculation, there is a natural shortage of vintage Rolexes since they are not produced any more. This is one big difference compared to the housing market, or the internet bubble. And it is driven primarily by demand (or to be more precise, by demand superceding supply based on rarity and age and the fact that they are not produced any more).

It will be interesting to see where this will go in the coming years. There is one factor I thought about why the demand for vintage Rolexes is so strong: all major currencies experience higher than usual inflation. In order to avoid buying power, people flee either into Gold, or other tangibles such as watches, antiques, art. Usually, as inflation rises, prices for these goods rise as well.

Rolex has an amazing reputation worldwide, and not in all countries is the reputation as favorable as it is in Asia and the US. However, even though the reputation is in some countries "different" (I am trying to refer to Germany where many people look at certain Rolexes as Pimpwatches), yet the demand is strong there as well.

Well, once a white Rolex Submariner 1680 costs 20k, I am out of the game, and so will many other people.

Cheers, Boris