....please ;)
As in 2007 they turned out perfekt :verneig:
Please do the magic again... ;)
Druckbare Version
....please ;)
As in 2007 they turned out perfekt :verneig:
Please do the magic again... ;)
Yes indeed...I'm curious, what did the esteemed Mr. Delgado predict for '07?
Hey guys.. we are going to have to wait for tradition.. Dec 31 or Jan 1st :) for the 2008...
John, here are the 2007 predictions..posted in Jan 1 07 in TZ, now with comments..
________
"1. COMEX will continue to skyrocket..the 63k comex is here and the 100k comex is closer than ever..
COMMENTS: Far surpassed now the 100k mark, closing the 200k mark..
2. DRSD and Red subs will continue a steady climb, 30k plus DRSD will be the norm..
COMMENTS: Superseded
3. Daytonas will see a slow steady decline but no big jumps..
COMMENTS: The begining of the year, they lagged but took a big bump at the end.
4. PN will remain in controversy but nice and correct examples will do well.
COMMENTS: It has remained in controversy and this has come to the forefront. Nice examples are doing extremely well.
5. White SD will picky back on the DRSD and increasing red subs and will hit 15k usd.
COMMENTS: WSD are still gaining momentum and closing on 15k, with PB expect more.
6. Milgauss 1019 will remain steady, so will 1655, milgauss 6241 will continue to raise.
COMMENTS: Yes, but all these models saw a big jump at the end of the year.
7. Mil subs will follow the comex craze
COMMENTS: See COMEX comments in mirror..
Overall, the rest of the market will continue to increase as new collectors enter the market.
As always, condition and provenance is king..
I dont see a bubble this year only positive advancements but its always good to be prudent and NOT purchase watches as an investment.. "
COMMENTS: I still think the same as above..
more later..
Ed - I'm curious what your prediction would have been for the red 1680 Submariner at the begining of 2007 and your outlook for 2008.
From my perspective, I think good examples have roughly doubled in price in 07. At the begining of the year, good examples could be had for 7-9k. Now it seems 15k is becoming the norm with 20k asking prices being seen. 8o
John,
Its hard to have seen this logarithmic increase in prices of Rolex Vintage sport watches and the red sub is no exception.
I think the upcoming years will see an emphasis on quality and completeness and less on the individual watch.. ie red sub vs white sub.. etc..
Delgado
So are you saying that a complete, mint condition white 1680 will "catch up" to a red 1680 in value/asking price?Zitat:
Originally posted by delgado
John,
Its hard to have seen this logarithmic increase in prices of Rolex Vintage sport watches and the red sub is no exception.
I think the upcoming years will see an emphasis on quality and completeness and less on the individual watch.. ie red sub vs white sub.. etc..
Delgado
Since we are about to start a new year, can I make just one request about the future direction of this forum?
Could we please, please, not transform it into another version of the vintagerolexforum.com?
I regard r-l-x.de as one of the very last areas of (relative) sanity when it comes down to vintage Rolex models. A place where the majority of the topics are posted by genuine watch amateurs, and not dealers in the business of artificially inflating the value of their stock by highlighting time and again microscopic variations of dials that nobody, and I mean nobody, cared about until recently.
So I would be very grateful if we could avoid topics about value, investment, etc. on what is a highly speculative market in which some behaviours make me sick to my stomach. There are enough forums where such discussions take place, with their inevitable corollaries of acid and name calling.
Thanks
Boris
PS: Ed, this is not at all against you, and I realize you're just answering a question being asked to you. I really enjoy your posts and knowledge. But in light of some recent discussions taking place on the forum I mention above, you probably know what I'm talking about in terms of what I'd like to avoid.
Hello Boris,
I have the same name as you do.
If we are supposed to refrain from discussing value, investment and similar topics, which topics should we discuss in this forum then? You gave all the negative, but did not suggest any positive?
I think it will be unavoidable to have all the topics come up in time. Rolex not only has idealistic value, or estetic value, but also monetary value simply because of its pricetag and of the developments in the past year especially. Slowly but surly, vintages become unaffordable for a lot of us WIS. That used to be different not too long ago where many of us could easily afford them. To that extent I think it is not a surprise that people bring up the topic of value.
I'd love to be taught and shown different, but that is just my two cents for what it's worth...
I believe in freedom, and whoever wants to post whatever topic, let them do it and enjoy the community, isn't that why we meet here?
Boris
...is that there are numerous forums where a good share of the posts are about investment, as if it were the primary point of this hobby. And the last thing I need, personally, is another one where most posts will be whether it's reasonable to pay US$ 1,200 for a 1680 bezel insert
I don't mind the odd post about price, etc., but I'd rather have most topics concentrate on history, esthetics, technical features, etc.
Last point: I do not believe in absolute freedom of speech on forums. I do believe in sensible and adequate moderation, otherwise debates often turn in ugly p*ssing contest and name calling. Case in point: this is an example of woefully inadequate moderation.
Guess that's all I have to say on this topic.
Boris
Boris and Boris..
Let me first of all say that I am not a dealer, just a collector like you..
Secondly, I stand up for what I believe...I hope that you guys do the same..
So, if someone is being rude and not forthcoming with information and you know the correct circumstances.. I am sure you would have done the same as I, put your foot forward, stand for what you believe and let the chips fall where they may... Sure, I could have sat on my hands and not say anything and let misinformation be fed to collectors or other dealers..
I am honest, sometimes to a fault. There are many people in our watch world that feel that just sitting back and not doing anything is ok.. I dont.
As for watches not being investments..I think that was true a few years ago when many of us were buying watches for fun but now there is a lot of investors and speculators in the market that know very little or care little about watches but just see this as tool to put money in their pockets quickly..
I want a 1665 COMEX.. I love the watch... I sold a pair of them a few years ago for 20k each... Even if could afford the 150k plus prices that they are asking today.. I just dont want too pay for them... So, I enjoy the watches that I have and look for other watches that I enjoy at more realistic prices...
Delgado
PS Note that I did not initiate this thread nor did I bring or mentioned the fight here from another forum..
Ed, I feel sorry that my post has been mis-interpreted:
- I know you are a true watch amateur, whom I respect , and I do enjoy your posts on your very informative site.
- I have no comment to make on the spat that happened on that other forum
- my comments were only an appeal for this forum not to transform into the way I've seen other forums evolve in recent years, hence the link I posted
- also, I just wanted to make a point about this old and tired argument about freedom of speech. Forums are moderated for a reason.
Boris,
Thank you for clarifying that...I appreciate it..
Delgado
Boris - I can understand your frustration about the current state of the vintage market. My question is, when has open discussion and open access to truth and insight not been a step in the right direction for any problem?
I don't frequent the forum you mention so I don't know of the problems you mention. I don't see any problems here however so if we could move the discussion back on topic, I'd appreciate it.
No issue John.
Sorry that I dwelled on this topic.
But as you mention, I am deeply gutted at the behaviors I am seeing developing across the vintage Rolex community. Greed is not what got me interested into this hobby.
back to topic ...
besides any predictions based on rarity or popularity of a specific watch, we will see an increased demand for vintage watches which are discussed and hyped in the main watch forums by the oppinion forming group of collectors and dealers.
Nicely done threads or discussions with good pictures an informations can push a watch modell dramatically.
.
and what about the tripple zero submariner ?
It is rare, will its price ever follow it's rarity ? ;)
Besides, being from 1987 is this a vintage or not
The price will allways follow the demand, not the rarity.Zitat:
Original von unknown
and what about the tripple zero submariner ?
It is rare, will its price ever follow it's rarity ? ;)
Besides, being from 1987 is this a vintage or not
To me, logic says the transitional models will go up. White 1680's will rise when a segment of the red sub buy population realizes they can't afford them, and go to the next best alternative. In fact, we're already seeing that happen to a degree (I believe) with white 1680's. If this holds true, then argueably the next rung down on the ladder are transitional subs.
Personally, as the price of 1680's rise, I'm getting more nervous about wearing my 1970 Red Sub. I nice matte dial transitional Sub might be a better watch to buy and wear. :grb:
John, I agree with you, logic says that as prices move up for certain vintages, people will shift their interest to the ones they can still afford. It is amazing how the prices of vintage Subs and Cosmos have risen over just a very short period. Not too long ago, I was able to afford a Cosmograph, but they have skyrocketed nearly to prices that equal a house. And even though they are much smaller than a house, they were a much better investment than most houses in the US for that matter... Could Rolex create a bubble with their vintage watches though? What are your thoughts?
Cheers, Boris
There is a substantial difference in price between a matte dial 16660 and a matte dial 16800 these days, and I can't find a logical explanation to it. The 16660 seem to fetch almost immediately, while I see some very nice examples of 16800 reasonably priced stay on sales corners for weeks.
As pointed by someone previously, since the price of red, and now white, Submariners is skyrocketting, I would not be surprised to see the matte 16800 increase in value.
As for the bubble, when you see that any Comex Sub / Sd commanding more than K 100 EUR, it's pretty obvious that there is one indeed. Someone stated before that just a couple of clever threads on some forums seem to increase the value of some models instantaneously. He is right on. Such price sensitivity can be interpretated only as speculation, which is one of the conditions for a bubble to form. When I read people saying that the prices keep on going up and that they will never go down, it reminds me of what I was reading until recently about the housing market in the US.
Hard to say what could cause it to burst, but here's my theory, which is worth what you have paid to read it:
-Rolex alredy refuse to authentify watches if they are not left for service.
- at some stage, Rolex will run out of spares to service vintage models. Meaning they will refuse to service these watches, and it will become impossible to have an official authentification
- at the same time, the prices being what they are, they will keep on attracting fakers
- the fakers are getting better by the day. A couple of years ago, a fake dial was easy to spot. Now, they get difficult to identify, even to a trained eye. Leave it a couple of years, and they will become impossible to distinguish
- this, combined with the absence of official authentification, should have an impact on the market for all pieces without papers (original or service)
- at some stage, I can't help but thinking that the fakers will start to fake papers as well
- in the absence of trust in the market, I just can't see how the prices can sustain themselves
Boris
Boris,
that is an interesting theory about how fakers could or may bring down prices of vintage watches. So in that case, for vintages watches one wants to keep it would be advisable to get Rolex authentication asap and keep it.
One thing that is for sure, even though it is driven by speculation, there is a natural shortage of vintage Rolexes since they are not produced any more. This is one big difference compared to the housing market, or the internet bubble. And it is driven primarily by demand (or to be more precise, by demand superceding supply based on rarity and age and the fact that they are not produced any more).
It will be interesting to see where this will go in the coming years. There is one factor I thought about why the demand for vintage Rolexes is so strong: all major currencies experience higher than usual inflation. In order to avoid buying power, people flee either into Gold, or other tangibles such as watches, antiques, art. Usually, as inflation rises, prices for these goods rise as well.
Rolex has an amazing reputation worldwide, and not in all countries is the reputation as favorable as it is in Asia and the US. However, even though the reputation is in some countries "different" (I am trying to refer to Germany where many people look at certain Rolexes as Pimpwatches), yet the demand is strong there as well.
Well, once a white Rolex Submariner 1680 costs 20k, I am out of the game, and so will many other people.
Cheers, Boris
Are the factors which could severly destabilize the financial value of the vintage market, the very factors which could save it for the enthusiast?
I think Boris_Koch is absolutely correct on two critical points:
-At some point, perhaps within the next 20 years, critical spare parts will be depleted from Rolex.
--At some point, perhaps within the next 20 years, Asian manufacturers will have the capacity to completely duplicate, in a cost effective maner, a complete Rolex movement.
Am I the only one that sees potential providence here?
Unless Rolex does a complete 180 degree turn and decides to start producing parts for the vintage market, vintage Rolex owners will have no choice but to accept non-Rolex replacement parts if they want a functioning watch. If I'm correct that Asian manufacturers will be able to produce parts indestinguishable from authentic Rolex parts, I can't imagine that prices for vintage Rolex watches will do anything but plummet.
Good for the enthusiast, bad for the speculator.
John, I think you are very optimistic when you say Rolex will be running out of stock of critical parts sometime in the next 20 years.
Most of the vintage watches we're interested stopped being produced before 1985. With that in mind, I believe it will be, at best, another 5-6 years before Rolex stop servicing these models.
Time will tell, I guess.
Boris
Quite possibly. It's also possible that Asian manufacturers will be capable of producing flawless Rolex parts cost effectively in that time frame as well.Zitat:
Originally posted by Boris_Koch
John, I think you are very optimistic when you say Rolex will be running out of stock of critical parts sometime in the next 20 years.
Most of the vintage watches we're interested stopped being produced before 1985. With that in mind, I believe it will be, at best, another 5-6 years before Rolex stop servicing these models.
Time will tell, I guess.
Boris
5 years or 20....the question remains the same.
One thing I am not sure about is though, will Rolex let prices fall? Falling prices in the vintage market mean falling prices in their new model lines. Sofar, they have worked hard to keep prices going up. They have been a very secretive company, they also work hard on keeping their brandname strong. Only the future will tell what really will happen. What is sure, is that nothing keeps on going up forever. But it just just be a dip before going higher... like it does sometimes with stocks...
With all due respect, I think you're way off the mark on this one.
You are suggesting that the price increase in the vintage market has something to do with a conscious decision by Rolex. I'm thinking hard, but I do not see how they could in any way set the price for vintage pieces since they are not carried out at official resellers, but on the second hand market. So it is set by supply / demand on that market, which is independent from Rolex.
As for the relationship between the price of new models and vintage ones, it's non-existent as they cater to largely different audiences. Example: the Rolex Daytona, a speculative watch if ever there was one. In the past 5 years, I've seen the price of a good condition steel 6263 (without papers) going from probably K 15-17 EUR to K 25. Meanwhile, a modern 116520 was about K 6 EUR list, and about K 8.5 -9 EUR on the second had market. The price for the 116520 has not varied much despite the steep increase in the 6263. And I would bet it would remain stable even if the 6263 was going back to K 15 EUR. I could decline this example on Submariners, GMT Masters, Explorer II's etc.
If anything at all, this vintage craze has turned into a massive pain in the neck for Rolex. They have had a massive increase in the number of people coming to their Service Centers asking to authentify vintage watches. Up until a couple of years ago, they would do this free of charge. Now, faced with this ever increasing demand, they refuse to do it if you do not leave the watch for service. Another hint that they are not pleased at all of what is happening on the vintage market can be found in their policy regarding spare parts. Up until 2 years ago, if you requested so, the Rolex SC in Paris would give you back the pieces they had to replace. Now, they categorically refuse to do so in order not to fuel the traffic taking place on spares. I've even read some accounts, still in Paris, that Rolex had to press charges against some employees who were smuggling used vintage spares out of the Service Center.
Another evidence that they do not care about the market price of vintage pieces can be found in the way they service these models. Rolex will now insist that they change old tritium hands with new superluminova ones. If you refuse the change, they refuse to service the watch, fair and square. So you might get away (on request) by not having your old dial changed, but the hands will be swapped in any case. Non-matching hands and indexes are one of the biggest bugbears of most vintage collectors, and instantly put a dent in the price one would generally pay for a vintage model. Conclusion: their insistence to swap hands show they could not care less about the value of those watches. They try to restore the functionality and reliability of those watches, regardless of the impact on market value.
I have a good anecdote about this, that a reputable second hand dealer in Montreal told me when I was on vacation there. One day, a customer gets in his store, desperate to find a dial for a red Sea-Dweller. The guy had a red Sea-Dweller in original condition, but at the time he got it, he did not realize the differential in price between a red a a white 1665. So, unsuspecting, he gave his watch to the Rolex Sc to service. They changed everything, hands, dial, etc. to service spares in superluminova. Only a few months later did he learn that a red 1665 was commanding twice the price of a white one. He went back to Rolex SC and make a big fuss to get the dial back. Rolex refused, pointing that they were servicing watches on an exchange basis for the pieces that needed to be changed. So his only option now to restore the condition and value of the watch was to spend a fortune getting a red 1665 dial and matching tritium hands on the market.
Lastly, let's not forget that it is infinitely more profitable for Rolex to sell a new model than to service a vintage one.
Well, just picking the "bubble", I would not compare it to the houses or new economy stocks but rather to vintage cars.
In the 80s these rose high up just to be cut by partly more than 50%. After some years the old level has been superceeded.
If this happens also for the vintage Rolex the traders will loose a lot of money, because they mostly put in money they would need within some time, while the collectors remain untouched, because for them it doesn't matter if the watch looses 50% of the value if they can be sure that it will superseed the old value after 15 years...
On the Rolex vintage strategy, I hope they do as come automotive manufacturers did and encounter the marketing possibilities of the old models. Why did Rolex re-use the Name Milgauss and the flash-hand?
This might point to some change we could hope for.
And I thinkt to all being in contact with Rolex officials, they should wear the oldest Rolex they own to show that they are worth to protect!
If they don't accept even watches which are restored by a free watchmaker within a time of less than 5 hours to an excellent state because of "so bad condition that we would have to replace movement, case, bottom, glass, dial and hands, what would be a reconstruction of a new watch" there is actually some kind of ignorance!
With vintage service Rolex could also earn money - ok, in the times of resource shortage in Switzerland the service devision could not easyly grow as may needed for this.
But for example if a vintage service is only possible in Geneva and at double cost for each working hour as the modern service, Rolex would earch sufficent percentage to enable this kind of service AND provide the needed vintage service for the old timepieces.
Bye
Marko
Excellent post Boris, with some very salient points. :gut:Zitat:
Originally posted by Boris_Koch
With all due respect, I think you're way off the mark on this one.
You are suggesting that the price increase in the vintage market has something to do with a conscious decision by Rolex. I'm thinking hard, but I do not see how they could in any way set the price for vintage pieces since they are not carried out at official resellers, but on the second hand market. So it is set by supply / demand on that market, which is independent from Rolex.
As for the relationship between the price of new models and vintage ones, it's non-existent as they cater to largely different audiences. Example: the Rolex Daytona, a speculative watch if ever there was one. In the past 5 years, I've seen the price of a good condition steel 6263 (without papers) going from probably K 15-17 EUR to K 25. Meanwhile, a modern 116520 was about K 6 EUR list, and about K 8.5 -9 EUR on the second had market. The price for the 116520 has not varied much despite the steep increase in the 6263. And I would bet it would remain stable even if the 6263 was going back to K 15 EUR. I could decline this example on Submariners, GMT Masters, Explorer II's etc.
If anything at all, this vintage craze has turned into a massive pain in the neck for Rolex. They have had a massive increase in the number of people coming to their Service Centers asking to authentify vintage watches. Up until a couple of years ago, they would do this free of charge. Now, faced with this ever increasing demand, they refuse to do it if you do not leave the watch for service. Another hint that they are not pleased at all of what is happening on the vintage market can be found in their policy regarding spare parts. Up until 2 years ago, if you requested so, the Rolex SC in Paris would give you back the pieces they had to replace. Now, they categorically refuse to do so in order not to fuel the traffic taking place on spares. I've even read some accounts, still in Paris, that Rolex had to press charges against some employees who were smuggling used vintage spares out of the Service Center.
Another evidence that they do not care about the market price of vintage pieces can be found in the way they service these models. Rolex will now insist that they change old tritium hands with new superluminova ones. If you refuse the change, they refuse to service the watch, fair and square. So you might get away (on request) by not having your old dial changed, but the hands will be swapped in any case. Non-matching hands and indexes are one of the biggest bugbears of most vintage collectors, and instantly put a dent in the price one would generally pay for a vintage model. Conclusion: their insistence to swap hands show they could not care less about the value of those watches. They try to restore the functionality and reliability of those watches, regardless of the impact on market value.
I have a good anecdote about this, that a reputable second hand dealer in Montreal told me when I was on vacation there. One day, a customer gets in his store, desperate to find a dial for a red Sea-Dweller. The guy had a red Sea-Dweller in original condition, but at the time he got it, he did not realize the differential in price between a red a a white 1665. So, unsuspecting, he gave his watch to the Rolex Sc to service. They changed everything, hands, dial, etc. to service spares in superluminova. Only a few months later did he learn that a red 1665 was commanding twice the price of a white one. He went back to Rolex SC and make a big fuss to get the dial back. Rolex refused, pointing that they were servicing watches on an exchange basis for the pieces that needed to be changed. So his only option now to restore the condition and value of the watch was to spend a fortune getting a red 1665 dial and matching tritium hands on the market.
Lastly, let's not forget that it is infinitely more profitable for Rolex to sell a new model than to service a vintage one.
Hi everybody,
I have been contemplating what possible developments we could see in 2008. What I have noticed as of lately, is that a lot of Rolex paraphernalia is achieving pretty steep auction results on the bay. I am thinking that the reason behind this is that watches have reached a price level that is so high, that many colelctors have decided to go after the paraphernalia instead of the watches? I would think that this trend will keep on during 2008. At the same time as many vintage Rolexes reach higher and higher price levels, I would imagine that some not so expensive not yet vintage Rolexes will be reaching higher prices at auction in the near term, if not in 2008, but soon. These models will include Subs 16800, 168000, GMTs 1675, 16750, 16760, 16700. Compared to the Sub 1680 and Seadweller 1665 they are still "cheap".
Well, these are just my two cents for what its worth.
Happy 2008, Boris
Hi Boris,
I agree with your views, especially when it comes down to the 1675 and 16750. Right now, they are the best value for money in the vintage sports models. Can't help but thinking they will go up in value, if I judge what happened recently to the 5513.
Cheers
Hi Boris & Boris,
I agree 100%. We can experience first forerunners of your GMT 1675 prediction. We see allready big (!) price jumps with the early 1675 thin case models.
Happy 2008
I tend to believe the market for Rolex related collectibles and goodies is rising simply because of rising interest in Rolex in general, not because people can't afford the watches. Buy a Rolex, and suddenly you want a pen or a knife or a shirt that says Rolex. :tongue:Zitat:
Originally posted by redsubmariner
Hi everybody,
I have been contemplating what possible developments we could see in 2008. What I have noticed as of lately, is that a lot of Rolex paraphernalia is achieving pretty steep auction results on the bay. I am thinking that the reason behind this is that watches have reached a price level that is so high, that many colelctors have decided to go after the paraphernalia instead of the watches?
John, you are right, once people get bit by the Rolex bug, they want a pen, a knife, a booklet, and they start paying more and more as demand surges while supply for vintage paraphernalia is stagnant. I saw some vintage anchors go for close to 1000 bucks. That is impressive. A friend of my parents gave me a Rolex anchor around 35 years ago when I was a child to play with. I wish I knew where it is now??? Probably thrown away not knowing what it would become worth one day...
Boris, I see a 5513 hitting close to 10k without papers on the bay right now. That is crazy. But they wont get cheaper anytime soon.
Boris
There's one the 'bay right now going for over 300 in bidding. 8o :grb:Zitat:
Originally posted by redsubmariner
John, you are right, once people get bit by the Rolex bug, they want a pen, a knife, a booklet, and they start paying more and more as demand surges while supply for vintage paraphernalia is stagnant. I saw some vintage anchors go for close to 1000 bucks. That is impressive. A friend of my parents gave me a Rolex anchor around 35 years ago when I was a child to play with. I wish I knew where it is now??? Probably thrown away not knowing what it would become worth one day...
Boris, I see a 5513 hitting close to 10k without papers on the bay right now. That is crazy. But they wont get cheaper anytime soon.
Boris