RE: I think I agree about the matte 16800
Boris,
that is an interesting theory about how fakers could or may bring down prices of vintage watches. So in that case, for vintages watches one wants to keep it would be advisable to get Rolex authentication asap and keep it.
One thing that is for sure, even though it is driven by speculation, there is a natural shortage of vintage Rolexes since they are not produced any more. This is one big difference compared to the housing market, or the internet bubble. And it is driven primarily by demand (or to be more precise, by demand superceding supply based on rarity and age and the fact that they are not produced any more).
It will be interesting to see where this will go in the coming years. There is one factor I thought about why the demand for vintage Rolexes is so strong: all major currencies experience higher than usual inflation. In order to avoid buying power, people flee either into Gold, or other tangibles such as watches, antiques, art. Usually, as inflation rises, prices for these goods rise as well.
Rolex has an amazing reputation worldwide, and not in all countries is the reputation as favorable as it is in Asia and the US. However, even though the reputation is in some countries "different" (I am trying to refer to Germany where many people look at certain Rolexes as Pimpwatches), yet the demand is strong there as well.
Well, once a white Rolex Submariner 1680 costs 20k, I am out of the game, and so will many other people.
Cheers, Boris
Will Rolex allow prices to fall?
One thing I am not sure about is though, will Rolex let prices fall? Falling prices in the vintage market mean falling prices in their new model lines. Sofar, they have worked hard to keep prices going up. They have been a very secretive company, they also work hard on keeping their brandname strong. Only the future will tell what really will happen. What is sure, is that nothing keeps on going up forever. But it just just be a dip before going higher... like it does sometimes with stocks...
RE: Will Rolex allow prices to fall?
With all due respect, I think you're way off the mark on this one.
You are suggesting that the price increase in the vintage market has something to do with a conscious decision by Rolex. I'm thinking hard, but I do not see how they could in any way set the price for vintage pieces since they are not carried out at official resellers, but on the second hand market. So it is set by supply / demand on that market, which is independent from Rolex.
As for the relationship between the price of new models and vintage ones, it's non-existent as they cater to largely different audiences. Example: the Rolex Daytona, a speculative watch if ever there was one. In the past 5 years, I've seen the price of a good condition steel 6263 (without papers) going from probably K 15-17 EUR to K 25. Meanwhile, a modern 116520 was about K 6 EUR list, and about K 8.5 -9 EUR on the second had market. The price for the 116520 has not varied much despite the steep increase in the 6263. And I would bet it would remain stable even if the 6263 was going back to K 15 EUR. I could decline this example on Submariners, GMT Masters, Explorer II's etc.
If anything at all, this vintage craze has turned into a massive pain in the neck for Rolex. They have had a massive increase in the number of people coming to their Service Centers asking to authentify vintage watches. Up until a couple of years ago, they would do this free of charge. Now, faced with this ever increasing demand, they refuse to do it if you do not leave the watch for service. Another hint that they are not pleased at all of what is happening on the vintage market can be found in their policy regarding spare parts. Up until 2 years ago, if you requested so, the Rolex SC in Paris would give you back the pieces they had to replace. Now, they categorically refuse to do so in order not to fuel the traffic taking place on spares. I've even read some accounts, still in Paris, that Rolex had to press charges against some employees who were smuggling used vintage spares out of the Service Center.
Another evidence that they do not care about the market price of vintage pieces can be found in the way they service these models. Rolex will now insist that they change old tritium hands with new superluminova ones. If you refuse the change, they refuse to service the watch, fair and square. So you might get away (on request) by not having your old dial changed, but the hands will be swapped in any case. Non-matching hands and indexes are one of the biggest bugbears of most vintage collectors, and instantly put a dent in the price one would generally pay for a vintage model. Conclusion: their insistence to swap hands show they could not care less about the value of those watches. They try to restore the functionality and reliability of those watches, regardless of the impact on market value.
I have a good anecdote about this, that a reputable second hand dealer in Montreal told me when I was on vacation there. One day, a customer gets in his store, desperate to find a dial for a red Sea-Dweller. The guy had a red Sea-Dweller in original condition, but at the time he got it, he did not realize the differential in price between a red a a white 1665. So, unsuspecting, he gave his watch to the Rolex Sc to service. They changed everything, hands, dial, etc. to service spares in superluminova. Only a few months later did he learn that a red 1665 was commanding twice the price of a white one. He went back to Rolex SC and make a big fuss to get the dial back. Rolex refused, pointing that they were servicing watches on an exchange basis for the pieces that needed to be changed. So his only option now to restore the condition and value of the watch was to spend a fortune getting a red 1665 dial and matching tritium hands on the market.
Lastly, let's not forget that it is infinitely more profitable for Rolex to sell a new model than to service a vintage one.
RE: Will Rolex allow prices to fall?
Zitat:
Originally posted by Boris_Koch
With all due respect, I think you're way off the mark on this one.
You are suggesting that the price increase in the vintage market has something to do with a conscious decision by Rolex. I'm thinking hard, but I do not see how they could in any way set the price for vintage pieces since they are not carried out at official resellers, but on the second hand market. So it is set by supply / demand on that market, which is independent from Rolex.
As for the relationship between the price of new models and vintage ones, it's non-existent as they cater to largely different audiences. Example: the Rolex Daytona, a speculative watch if ever there was one. In the past 5 years, I've seen the price of a good condition steel 6263 (without papers) going from probably K 15-17 EUR to K 25. Meanwhile, a modern 116520 was about K 6 EUR list, and about K 8.5 -9 EUR on the second had market. The price for the 116520 has not varied much despite the steep increase in the 6263. And I would bet it would remain stable even if the 6263 was going back to K 15 EUR. I could decline this example on Submariners, GMT Masters, Explorer II's etc.
If anything at all, this vintage craze has turned into a massive pain in the neck for Rolex. They have had a massive increase in the number of people coming to their Service Centers asking to authentify vintage watches. Up until a couple of years ago, they would do this free of charge. Now, faced with this ever increasing demand, they refuse to do it if you do not leave the watch for service. Another hint that they are not pleased at all of what is happening on the vintage market can be found in their policy regarding spare parts. Up until 2 years ago, if you requested so, the Rolex SC in Paris would give you back the pieces they had to replace. Now, they categorically refuse to do so in order not to fuel the traffic taking place on spares. I've even read some accounts, still in Paris, that Rolex had to press charges against some employees who were smuggling used vintage spares out of the Service Center.
Another evidence that they do not care about the market price of vintage pieces can be found in the way they service these models. Rolex will now insist that they change old tritium hands with new superluminova ones. If you refuse the change, they refuse to service the watch, fair and square. So you might get away (on request) by not having your old dial changed, but the hands will be swapped in any case. Non-matching hands and indexes are one of the biggest bugbears of most vintage collectors, and instantly put a dent in the price one would generally pay for a vintage model. Conclusion: their insistence to swap hands show they could not care less about the value of those watches. They try to restore the functionality and reliability of those watches, regardless of the impact on market value.
I have a good anecdote about this, that a reputable second hand dealer in Montreal told me when I was on vacation there. One day, a customer gets in his store, desperate to find a dial for a red Sea-Dweller. The guy had a red Sea-Dweller in original condition, but at the time he got it, he did not realize the differential in price between a red a a white 1665. So, unsuspecting, he gave his watch to the Rolex Sc to service. They changed everything, hands, dial, etc. to service spares in superluminova. Only a few months later did he learn that a red 1665 was commanding twice the price of a white one. He went back to Rolex SC and make a big fuss to get the dial back. Rolex refused, pointing that they were servicing watches on an exchange basis for the pieces that needed to be changed. So his only option now to restore the condition and value of the watch was to spend a fortune getting a red 1665 dial and matching tritium hands on the market.
Lastly, let's not forget that it is infinitely more profitable for Rolex to sell a new model than to service a vintage one.
Excellent post Boris, with some very salient points. :gut:
Some more thoughts on 2008
Hi everybody,
I have been contemplating what possible developments we could see in 2008. What I have noticed as of lately, is that a lot of Rolex paraphernalia is achieving pretty steep auction results on the bay. I am thinking that the reason behind this is that watches have reached a price level that is so high, that many colelctors have decided to go after the paraphernalia instead of the watches? I would think that this trend will keep on during 2008. At the same time as many vintage Rolexes reach higher and higher price levels, I would imagine that some not so expensive not yet vintage Rolexes will be reaching higher prices at auction in the near term, if not in 2008, but soon. These models will include Subs 16800, 168000, GMTs 1675, 16750, 16760, 16700. Compared to the Sub 1680 and Seadweller 1665 they are still "cheap".
Well, these are just my two cents for what its worth.
Happy 2008, Boris
RE: Some more thoughts on 2008
Zitat:
Originally posted by redsubmariner
Hi everybody,
I have been contemplating what possible developments we could see in 2008. What I have noticed as of lately, is that a lot of Rolex paraphernalia is achieving pretty steep auction results on the bay. I am thinking that the reason behind this is that watches have reached a price level that is so high, that many colelctors have decided to go after the paraphernalia instead of the watches?
I tend to believe the market for Rolex related collectibles and goodies is rising simply because of rising interest in Rolex in general, not because people can't afford the watches. Buy a Rolex, and suddenly you want a pen or a knife or a shirt that says Rolex. :tongue:
RE: Some more thoughts on 2008
John, you are right, once people get bit by the Rolex bug, they want a pen, a knife, a booklet, and they start paying more and more as demand surges while supply for vintage paraphernalia is stagnant. I saw some vintage anchors go for close to 1000 bucks. That is impressive. A friend of my parents gave me a Rolex anchor around 35 years ago when I was a child to play with. I wish I knew where it is now??? Probably thrown away not knowing what it would become worth one day...
Boris, I see a 5513 hitting close to 10k without papers on the bay right now. That is crazy. But they wont get cheaper anytime soon.
Boris
RE: Some more thoughts on 2008
Zitat:
Originally posted by redsubmariner
John, you are right, once people get bit by the Rolex bug, they want a pen, a knife, a booklet, and they start paying more and more as demand surges while supply for vintage paraphernalia is stagnant. I saw some vintage anchors go for close to 1000 bucks. That is impressive. A friend of my parents gave me a Rolex anchor around 35 years ago when I was a child to play with. I wish I knew where it is now??? Probably thrown away not knowing what it would become worth one day...
Boris, I see a 5513 hitting close to 10k without papers on the bay right now. That is crazy. But they wont get cheaper anytime soon.
Boris
There's one the 'bay right now going for over 300 in bidding. 8o :grb:
