Predictions for 2008 (long)
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Predictions for 2008
Looking at my magic ball. If any of this junk becomes true, its merely coincidental
IMO the Rolex Market will continue to climb to stratospheric levels. Helped by the weak dollar, stronger GBP and Euro along with continue influx of new collectors and now fueled by some investors/speculators.
This will be the year of provenance and condition.
If you take one thing with you, its this “This is the year of provenance and condition” and “Wear Sunscreen” Ok, that is two things..
1. Rare pieces will command rare prices. COMEX, Mil subs, PPDRSD, will continue to march at their own logarithmic scale. They will separate the serious collectors from the newbies.. and I mean serious prices for serious collectors. This will become a game for the big boys of “how bad do you want it?”
2. Sport watches will continue to ride the curve. Those with correct papers, and condition will separate from the bunch and continue to command almost twice the price.
3. DRSD at 50k usd will be the norm and Red Subs will be at about 25k for nice examples. White SD and subs will follow this trend.
4. Daytonas will climb past 60ks and PN will be trading for at least 200k for nice examples and more for better documented ones..
5. Mayer dial Daytonas will remain in some controversy, hopefully we will see some resolution of this.
6. Pisani Dials 1665s along with 5514 will be the watch to own by serious collectors, along with the 5517 mil subs. ..Both watches will be pillars for some collectors.
7. Milgauss 1019s and the 6541/3 will take a bump from the current production and both will become more desirable.
8. Gilt is in.. and so is Shitake or Tropical.. Specially gilt watches have gone through the roof and their beautiful dials are treasured by collectors.. they will continue to flourish. Specially those gilt dials associated with James Bond or Big Crown. Condition is the key on these watches. Tropical is a little trendy but some have a love it or leave it attitude to them .
9. Transitionals will stay in transition.. some like them, some prefer the originals.. They will be desirable but most prefer to have the plastic or the sapphire ones..
10. Crappy watches will demand crappy prices and will be harder to sell. Unless you need parts..
11. Bigger is Better and Newer is ok. So the new milgauss, anniv milgauss, ceramic GMT are in.. even some of the vintages guys are liking these watches.. The anniversary milgauss will be a big winner and command a big premium.
12. GMTs are cool again.. and 6542s will continue and soon break 100k… 1675s will continue to slowly rise to the top..
The Bubble and Balloon.
If the whole market tanks, the cream pieces will rise to the top and the lower pieces will stagnate. The prices will hold but it will take longer to sell as less collectors will be willing to buy. Some of the smaller collectors will suffer and take a hit to get out.
As long as the European, Japanese, Chinese and Russian economy holds up, the balloon will hold.
So far no bubble, only continued ballooning.
The Investor
Weather you want it or not.. (and I am one that have resisted this theory), our hobby is now a market. Yes, there are investors and speculators mixed in with true collectors or some that are playing with watches.
For years we have been told that watches are not investments and I believe that also. But when watches are better investments than wall street or real state, it attracts some people that would normally stayed out.
And if watch price discussions horrify you or disgust you since you feel this is our hobby, well, we need to get used to it. It’s the sign of the times and it affects all of us. It affects which watch we are going to get next since finances is important to most of us and we cant afford everything we want.. (some of you are excluded)
So I end up buying a nice white sub, even if I wanted a 1665 because the 1665 have now become unattainable and finding a 1680 comex or 1665 comex for a reasonable price has become as easy as breaking into Fort Knox with a Swiss army knife in an orange jump suit during daylight.
Disclaimer
This whole post is total speculation on my part and only my opinion, so take for what is worth. nothing.. I am not a financial guy or a watch business guy. I am just an expectator that loves watches. Looking at the industry from the outside.
And if any of guys make it big with the info on my post, I want a piece of it… LOL If you loose money...well, I told you so... :)
Have a Happy New Year and I hope that you find the watch you love.
