Mr. Delgado, Your predictions for 2008

....please ;)
As in 2007 they turned out perfekt :verneig:
Please do the magic again... ;)

Yes indeed...I'm curious, what did the esteemed Mr. Delgado predict for '07?

Hey guys.. we are going to have to wait for tradition.. Dec 31 or Jan 1st :) for the 2008...

John, here are the 2007 predictions..posted in Jan 1 07 in TZ, now with comments..

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"1. COMEX will continue to skyrocket..the 63k comex is here and the 100k comex is closer than ever..

COMMENTS: Far surpassed now the 100k mark, closing the 200k mark..

2. DRSD and Red subs will continue a steady climb, 30k plus DRSD will be the norm..

COMMENTS: Superseded

3. Daytonas will see a slow steady decline but no big jumps..

COMMENTS: The begining of the year, they lagged but took a big bump at the end.

4. PN will remain in controversy but nice and correct examples will do well.

COMMENTS: It has remained in controversy and this has come to the forefront. Nice examples are doing extremely well.

5. White SD will picky back on the DRSD and increasing red subs and will hit 15k usd.

COMMENTS: WSD are still gaining momentum and closing on 15k, with PB expect more.

6. Milgauss 1019 will remain steady, so will 1655, milgauss 6241 will continue to raise.

COMMENTS: Yes, but all these models saw a big jump at the end of the year.

7. Mil subs will follow the comex craze

COMMENTS: See COMEX comments in mirror..

Overall, the rest of the market will continue to increase as new collectors enter the market.

As always, condition and provenance is king..

I dont see a bubble this year only positive advancements but its always good to be prudent and NOT purchase watches as an investment.. "

COMMENTS: I still think the same as above..

more later..

Ed - I'm curious what your prediction would have been for the red 1680 Submariner at the begining of 2007 and your outlook for 2008.

From my perspective, I think good examples have roughly doubled in price in 07. At the begining of the year, good examples could be had for 7-9k. Now it seems 15k is becoming the norm with 20k asking prices being seen. 8o

John,

Its hard to have seen this logarithmic increase in prices of Rolex Vintage sport watches and the red sub is no exception.

I think the upcoming years will see an emphasis on quality and completeness and less on the individual watch.. ie red sub vs white sub.. etc..

Delgado

Zitat:

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Originally posted by delgado
John,

Its hard to have seen this logarithmic increase in prices of Rolex Vintage sport watches and the red sub is no exception.

I think the upcoming years will see an emphasis on quality and completeness and less on the individual watch.. ie red sub vs white sub.. etc..

Delgado

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So are you saying that a complete, mint condition white 1680 will "catch up" to a red 1680 in value/asking price?

Since we are about to start a new year, can I make just one request about the future direction of this forum?

Could we please, please, not transform it into another version of the vintagerolexforum.com?

I regard r-l-x.de as one of the very last areas of (relative) sanity when it comes down to vintage Rolex models. A place where the majority of the topics are posted by genuine watch amateurs, and not dealers in the business of artificially inflating the value of their stock by highlighting time and again microscopic variations of dials that nobody, and I mean nobody, cared about until recently.

So I would be very grateful if we could avoid topics about value, investment, etc. on what is a highly speculative market in which some behaviours make me sick to my stomach. There are enough forums where such discussions take place, with their inevitable corollaries of acid and name calling.

Thanks

Boris

PS: Ed, this is not at all against you, and I realize you're just answering a question being asked to you. I really enjoy your posts and knowledge. But in light of some recent discussions taking place on the forum I mention above, you probably know what I'm talking about in terms of what I'd like to avoid.

Hello Boris,

I have the same name as you do.

If we are supposed to refrain from discussing value, investment and similar topics, which topics should we discuss in this forum then? You gave all the negative, but did not suggest any positive?

I think it will be unavoidable to have all the topics come up in time. Rolex not only has idealistic value, or estetic value, but also monetary value simply because of its pricetag and of the developments in the past year especially. Slowly but surly, vintages become unaffordable for a lot of us WIS. That used to be different not too long ago where many of us could easily afford them. To that extent I think it is not a surprise that people bring up the topic of value.

I'd love to be taught and shown different, but that is just my two cents for what it's worth...

I believe in freedom, and whoever wants to post whatever topic, let them do it and enjoy the community, isn't that why we meet here?

Boris

...is that there are numerous forums where a good share of the posts are about investment, as if it were the primary point of this hobby. And the last thing I need, personally, is another one where most posts will be whether it's reasonable to pay US$ 1,200 for a 1680 bezel insert

I don't mind the odd post about price, etc., but I'd rather have most topics concentrate on history, esthetics, technical features, etc.

Last point: I do not believe in absolute freedom of speech on forums. I do believe in sensible and adequate moderation, otherwise debates often turn in ugly p*ssing contest and name calling. Case in point: this is an example of woefully inadequate moderation.

Guess that's all I have to say on this topic.

Boris

Boris and Boris..

Let me first of all say that I am not a dealer, just a collector like you..

Secondly, I stand up for what I believe...I hope that you guys do the same..

So, if someone is being rude and not forthcoming with information and you know the correct circumstances.. I am sure you would have done the same as I, put your foot forward, stand for what you believe and let the chips fall where they may... Sure, I could have sat on my hands and not say anything and let misinformation be fed to collectors or other dealers..

I am honest, sometimes to a fault. There are many people in our watch world that feel that just sitting back and not doing anything is ok.. I dont.

As for watches not being investments..I think that was true a few years ago when many of us were buying watches for fun but now there is a lot of investors and speculators in the market that know very little or care little about watches but just see this as tool to put money in their pockets quickly..

I want a 1665 COMEX.. I love the watch... I sold a pair of them a few years ago for 20k each... Even if could afford the 150k plus prices that they are asking today.. I just dont want too pay for them... So, I enjoy the watches that I have and look for other watches that I enjoy at more realistic prices...

Delgado

PS Note that I did not initiate this thread nor did I bring or mentioned the fight here from another forum..

Ed, I feel sorry that my post has been mis-interpreted:

- I know you are a true watch amateur, whom I respect , and I do enjoy your posts on your very informative site.

- I have no comment to make on the spat that happened on that other forum

- my comments were only an appeal for this forum not to transform into the way I've seen other forums evolve in recent years, hence the link I posted

- also, I just wanted to make a point about this old and tired argument about freedom of speech. Forums are moderated for a reason.

Boris,

Thank you for clarifying that...I appreciate it..

Delgado

Boris - I can understand your frustration about the current state of the vintage market. My question is, when has open discussion and open access to truth and insight not been a step in the right direction for any problem?

I don't frequent the forum you mention so I don't know of the problems you mention. I don't see any problems here however so if we could move the discussion back on topic, I'd appreciate it.

No issue John.

Sorry that I dwelled on this topic.

But as you mention, I am deeply gutted at the behaviors I am seeing developing across the vintage Rolex community. Greed is not what got me interested into this hobby.

back to topic ...

besides any predictions based on rarity or popularity of a specific watch, we will see an increased demand for vintage watches which are discussed and hyped in the main watch forums by the oppinion forming group of collectors and dealers.

Nicely done threads or discussions with good pictures an informations can push a watch modell dramatically.

.

and what about the tripple zero submariner ?
It is rare, will its price ever follow it's rarity ? ;)

Besides, being from 1987 is this a vintage or not

Zitat:

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Original von unknown
and what about the tripple zero submariner ?
It is rare, will its price ever follow it's rarity ? ;)

Besides, being from 1987 is this a vintage or not

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The price will allways follow the demand, not the rarity.

To me, logic says the transitional models will go up. White 1680's will rise when a segment of the red sub buy population realizes they can't afford them, and go to the next best alternative. In fact, we're already seeing that happen to a degree (I believe) with white 1680's. If this holds true, then argueably the next rung down on the ladder are transitional subs.

Personally, as the price of 1680's rise, I'm getting more nervous about wearing my 1970 Red Sub. I nice matte dial transitional Sub might be a better watch to buy and wear. :grb:

John, I agree with you, logic says that as prices move up for certain vintages, people will shift their interest to the ones they can still afford. It is amazing how the prices of vintage Subs and Cosmos have risen over just a very short period. Not too long ago, I was able to afford a Cosmograph, but they have skyrocketed nearly to prices that equal a house. And even though they are much smaller than a house, they were a much better investment than most houses in the US for that matter... Could Rolex create a bubble with their vintage watches though? What are your thoughts?

Cheers, Boris

There is a substantial difference in price between a matte dial 16660 and a matte dial 16800 these days, and I can't find a logical explanation to it. The 16660 seem to fetch almost immediately, while I see some very nice examples of 16800 reasonably priced stay on sales corners for weeks.

As pointed by someone previously, since the price of red, and now white, Submariners is skyrocketting, I would not be surprised to see the matte 16800 increase in value.

As for the bubble, when you see that any Comex Sub / Sd commanding more than K 100 EUR, it's pretty obvious that there is one indeed. Someone stated before that just a couple of clever threads on some forums seem to increase the value of some models instantaneously. He is right on. Such price sensitivity can be interpretated only as speculation, which is one of the conditions for a bubble to form. When I read people saying that the prices keep on going up and that they will never go down, it reminds me of what I was reading until recently about the housing market in the US.

Hard to say what could cause it to burst, but here's my theory, which is worth what you have paid to read it:

-Rolex alredy refuse to authentify watches if they are not left for service.
- at some stage, Rolex will run out of spares to service vintage models. Meaning they will refuse to service these watches, and it will become impossible to have an official authentification
- at the same time, the prices being what they are, they will keep on attracting fakers
- the fakers are getting better by the day. A couple of years ago, a fake dial was easy to spot. Now, they get difficult to identify, even to a trained eye. Leave it a couple of years, and they will become impossible to distinguish
- this, combined with the absence of official authentification, should have an impact on the market for all pieces without papers (original or service)
- at some stage, I can't help but thinking that the fakers will start to fake papers as well
- in the absence of trust in the market, I just can't see how the prices can sustain themselves

Boris